According to the latest data from the National Vital Statistics Reports (March 2022, reporting on 2019 experience, so before the pandemic), a male age 65 should expect to live 18.2 more years (to age 83.2) and a female 20.8 years (to age 85.8). Half of 65-year-olds will die sooner, half later than suggested by those averages.

That tells us nothing about you, of course. How’s your health? Your family history? You’ll want to take these into account, and you probably should plan for longer than you expect to live.

Here’s another way to look at the numbers from that report. For every 100,000 men, how many reach age 85?  36,252 men do. For every 100,000 women, 50,324 reach age 85. Mortality increases precipitously after that, as shown in the table below.

Number of survivors of 100,000 people

Source: National Vital Statistics Report, Volume 70 Number 19, March 22, 2022

The table quantifies the fact of life than everyone knows: Women live longer than men. Half of the men reach age 80, but half of the women reach age 85. 

Race is a measurable factor in longevity as well, according to the report. Some 63% of Asians will live to 85, and 53% of Hispanics. For whites the figure is 42%, for Blacks 33%, and for American Indian and Alaskan natives, just 30%. Asian women have a nearly 8% chance of reaching age 100.

To answer the question in the headline, probably longer than your first guess.

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